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Shock result as Al Wehda Club defy the odds to beat Al-Fateh 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Wehda Club beat Al-Fateh 1-2 at Al Fateh Club Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.68 xG and Al Wehda Club 1.33 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 0.94 / defence 1.16 against Al Wehda Club attack 0.85 / defence 1.30, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 46% | Draw 24% | Al Wehda Club 30%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Al Wehda Club win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 64%, Al Wehda Club 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Fateh's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.

Al Wehda Club's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Fateh 1.09 PPG, Al Wehda Club 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Wehda Club win broke the near-deadlock. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights