Al-Fateh 1-3 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Shabab at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Al Shabab travel to Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Stadium to take on Al-Fateh. The game is scheduled for Thursday 22 October 2026, 14:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fateh stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Stadium, Al-Fateh have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Al Shabab — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Shabab have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Al-Fateh) versus 0.80 (Al Shabab). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Al-Fateh, 2 for Al Shabab and 4 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Fateh in-play tendencies (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Al Shabab in-play tendencies (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 58% versus Al Shabab 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 46% | Al Shabab 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.01 xG and Al Shabab 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.779 / defence 1.249 | Al Shabab attack 0.793 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.403. Al-Fateh's attack strength of 0.779 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 Al-Fateh games / 43 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 25% | Draw 33% | Al Shabab 43%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 4.00 | Draw 3.03 | Al Shabab 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Shabab are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 40% | Al Shabab 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 22 Oct 2026, 14:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 25% | Draw 33% | Al Shabab 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Al-Fateh 1.01 / Al Shabab 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 0.779 / def 1.249 | Al Shabab attack 0.793 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Al Shabab xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab kicked off at 14:45 on Thursday 22 October 2026 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab?
Al-Fateh 1 - 3 Al Shabab.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 25% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 43% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Shabab?
Record (9 meetings): Al-Fateh 3W | Draws 4 | Al Shabab 2W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Shabab in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Al Shabab (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Fateh's attack rating (0.78) and Al Shabab's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Shabab's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
25%
4.06
33%
3.08
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.40
1.39
Al Shabab xG
4.06
25%
Home win
3.08
33%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
6%
16.30
16%
6.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 12.6 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.4 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.39 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Fateh's recent record stands at 10W 13D 20L from 43 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Shabab, meanwhile, have gone 9W 16D 18L across 43 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fateh on 1.00 PPG, Al Shabab on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Fateh have managed 7W 5D 8L from 20 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Shabab's away record stands at 2W 9D 9L across 20 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fateh come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.28 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Shabab in 60%.
Last 43 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al Shabab
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 10W 13D 20L in their last 43 games (1.00 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 9W 16D 18L in their last 43 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al Shabab away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.30 PPG; Al Shabab away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fateh and Al Shabab runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 22 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Dec 2022, when Al-Fateh won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fateh's record when hosting Al Shabab specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Al-Fateh
4
Draws
3
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Shabab?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 3, Al Shabab have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 22 October 2026, when Al-Fateh 1-3 Al Shabab.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 60%, Al Shabab 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Al-Fateh) and 30% (Al Shabab).
On the defensive side: Al Shabab in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al Shabab?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Al-Fateh's games and 50% of Al Shabab's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Al-Fateh's recent games and 30% of Al Shabab's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fateh and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Shabab cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al-Fateh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Al-Fateh 1-3 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.01 xG and Al Shabab 1.39 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al Shabab outscored their 1.39 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 0.78 / defence 1.25 against Al Shabab attack 0.79 / defence 0.93, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 25% | Draw 33% | Al Shabab 43%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 46%, Al Shabab 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Al Shabab's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fateh 1.00 PPG, Al Shabab 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Shabab win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Shabab (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.