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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Fateh cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al Shabab.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Fateh beat Al Shabab 3-1 at Al Fateh Club Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.47 xG and Al Shabab 1.45 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al-Fateh beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.01 / defence 0.89 against Al Shabab attack 1.16 / defence 0.98, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 37% | Draw 26% | Al Shabab 37%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 65%, Al Shabab 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Fateh's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.

Al Shabab's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Fateh 1.19 PPG, Al Shabab 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fateh win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm. Al Shabab (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights