🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Al-Fateh at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fateh vs Al Riyadh encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Al-Fateh and Al Riyadh meet at Al Fateh club stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 13 January 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Al-Fateh have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Fateh at Al Fateh club stadium this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Al Riyadh's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Riyadh, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Al Riyadh have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form favours the hosts. Al-Fateh's 1.60 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Al Riyadh's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al-Fateh register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Al Riyadh in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Al-Fateh, 1 for Al Riyadh and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Al-Fateh half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).

Al Riyadh half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fateh 66% and Al Riyadh 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 60% | Al Riyadh 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 2.32 xG and Al Riyadh 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.154 / defence 1.045 | Al Riyadh attack 0.810 / defence 1.344. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.443. Al Riyadh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.344 — this is suppressing Al-Fateh's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Al-Fateh games / 47 Al Riyadh games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 62% | Draw 19% | Al Riyadh 19%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 1.61 | Draw 5.26 | Al Riyadh 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Al-Fateh (62%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.32 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fateh at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.54 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 70% | Al Riyadh 70% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights