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Al-Fateh cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al-Raed.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Fateh beat Al-Raed 3-1 at Al Fateh Club Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.61 xG and Al-Raed 1.44 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al-Fateh beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 0.85 / defence 1.11 against Al-Raed attack 0.98 / defence 1.25, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 42% | Draw 24% | Al-Raed 34%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 66%, Al-Raed 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Fateh's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Raed's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Fateh 1.10 PPG, Al-Raed 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fateh win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Raed (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights