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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al-Fateh edge out Al Orubah 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Fateh beat Al Orubah 1-0 at Al Fateh Club Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.77 xG and Al Orubah 0.98 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Orubah landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 0.88 / defence 1.08 against Al Orubah attack 0.66 / defence 1.31, drawn from 54/20 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 56% | Draw 23% | Al Orubah 21%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 60%, Al Orubah 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Fateh's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Al Orubah's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 55% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Fateh 0.65 PPG, Al Orubah 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fateh win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Al Orubah (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights