Al-Fateh 0-1 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Nassr at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium plays host to Al-Fateh versus Al-Nassr in Pro League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 1 January 2022 at 13:40 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Fateh's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 1L across 5 games at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Al-Nassr (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Nassr have posted 3W 1D 3L from 7 away outings — 1.43 PPG. Away from home they average 1.43 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al-Nassr arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Al-Fateh half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Al-Nassr half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 38% versus Al-Nassr 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 38% | Al-Nassr 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.51 xG and Al-Nassr 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.282 / defence 1.409 | Al-Nassr attack 1.022 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.142 / away 1.076. Al-Fateh carry an above-average attack strength of 1.282 — their λ of 1.51 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 13 Al-Fateh games / 14 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 37% | Draw 24% | Al-Nassr 39%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 2.70 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Nassr 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Nassr as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 40% | Al-Nassr 71% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Jan 2022, 13:40 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 37% | Draw 24% | Al-Nassr 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Al-Fateh 1.51 / Al-Nassr 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 1.282 / def 1.409 | Al-Nassr attack 1.022 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.142 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Al-Nassr xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 13:40 on Saturday 1 January 2022 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr?
Al-Fateh 0 - 1 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 37% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 39% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Nassr?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Nassr in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Al-Nassr (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Fateh's attack at 1.28x the league average against Al-Nassr's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Nassr's attack (1.02x) against Al-Fateh's defence (1.41x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 13/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
37%
2.70
24%
4.11
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
3.06
1.55
Al-Nassr xG
2.70
37%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.63
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
21%
4.71
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
8%
12.73
9%
11.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.3 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.0 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.3 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.55 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Fateh come into this having played 13 games, going 4W 4D 5L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-W. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Nassr sit at 1.54 PPG from 13 outings (6W 2D 5L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Al-Fateh against 1.54 for Al-Nassr. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Al-Fateh's home form reads 2W 2D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Nassr have taken 1.40 points per game from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 1.46 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr in 69%.
Last 13 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 4W 4D 5L in their last 13 games (1.23 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 6W 2D 5L in their last 13 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.60 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Al-Fateh or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fateh have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Nassr go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Nassr won 0-5 on 25 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fateh have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al-Nassr — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al-Fateh
1
Draws
8
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Nassr?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 1, Al-Nassr have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Al-Nassr 3-0 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 40%, Al-Nassr 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Al-Fateh) and 40% (Al-Nassr).
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al-Nassr?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Al-Fateh's recent matches and 60% of Al-Nassr's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Al-Fateh's recent games and 40% of Al-Nassr's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fateh and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Nassr edge out Al-Fateh 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al-Fateh 0-1 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.51 xG and Al-Nassr 1.55 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Fateh fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.28 / defence 1.41 against Al-Nassr attack 1.02 / defence 1.03, drawn from 13/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 37% | Draw 24% | Al-Nassr 39%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 38%, Al-Nassr 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (13 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (13 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fateh 1.23 PPG, Al-Nassr 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Nassr win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.