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Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 58% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fateh vs Al-Nassr encounter.

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Full Analysis

Al Fateh Club Stadium plays host to Al-Fateh versus Al-Nassr in Pro League, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Monday 26 May 2025 at 19:00 UTC.

Current Form

Al-Fateh's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Al-Fateh's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Al Fateh Club Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Al-Nassr (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Nassr have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al-Fateh register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Al-Nassr in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

Head-to-Head

Al-Nassr hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 6 wins from 7 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Jan 2025, ended 1–3 with Al-Nassr winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Nassr have won 6 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading

Al-Fateh half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

Al-Nassr half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Fateh 73% and Al-Nassr 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Fateh 64% | Al-Nassr 76%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.55 xG and Al-Nassr 2.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.161 / defence 1.022 | Al-Nassr attack 1.691 / defence 0.867. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.433. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack strength of 1.691 — the away xG of 2.48 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 67 Al-Fateh games / 67 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 23% | Draw 19% | Al-Nassr 58%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 4.35 | Draw 5.26 | Al-Nassr 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (58%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 4.03. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.03 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 2.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Nassr as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 4.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 77% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 80% | Al-Nassr 80% BTTS from recent games.

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