Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Al-Fateh take on Al Kholood.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Kholood make the trip to Al Fateh club stadium to face Al-Fateh in Pro League, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Thursday 3 December 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Fateh's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Al-Fateh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Fateh's home record at Al Fateh club stadium: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Al-Fateh are significantly better at Al Fateh club stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Kholood have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 6D 1L. Last five: W D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al Kholood have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Kholood's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al Kholood are 0.80 PPG clear of Al-Fateh in recent Pro League fixtures (1.50 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Al-Fateh 0W, Al Kholood 2W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Fateh — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Al Kholood — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 58% versus Al Kholood 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 42% | Al Kholood 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.16 xG and Al Kholood 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.799 / defence 0.879 | Al Kholood attack 0.967 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.368 / away 1.335. Al-Fateh's attack strength of 0.799 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 40 Al-Fateh games / 40 Al Kholood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 34% | Draw 34% | Al Kholood 32%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 2.94 | Draw 2.94 | Al Kholood 3.12. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al-Fateh 40% | Al Kholood 70%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Al Fateh club stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 3 Dec 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 34% | Draw 34% | Al Kholood 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 49% | xG Al-Fateh 1.16 / Al Kholood 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 0.799 / def 0.879 | Al Kholood attack 0.967 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.368 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Al Kholood xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Thursday 3 December 2026 at Al Fateh club stadium.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh club stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 34% chance of winning, Al Kholood a 32% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al Kholood will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Kholood?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Fateh 0W | Draws 2 | Al Kholood 2W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Kholood in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Al Kholood (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Fateh's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Al Kholood's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. Flip it around — Al Kholood's attack (0.97x) against Al-Fateh's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.97
34%
2.93
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.30
1.13
Al Kholood xG
2.97
34%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
11%
9.24
10%
9.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 11.4 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.3 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al Kholood expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.13 for Al Kholood, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Fateh's recent record stands at 9W 13D 18L from 40 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fateh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Kholood, meanwhile, have gone 12W 9D 19L across 40 games — 1.12 PPG, with W-D-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Kholood, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Al-Fateh against 1.12 for Al Kholood. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Fateh have managed 7W 5D 8L from 20 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Kholood's away record stands at 6W 5D 9L across 20 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Al Kholood are on 1.27 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Early Season
Al Kholood
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Kholood in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 9W 13D 18L in their last 40 games (1.00 PPG), while Al Kholood have gone 12W 9D 19L in their last 40 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al Kholood away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.30 PPG; Al Kholood away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 21 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Kholood won 2-5 on 20 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fateh have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Kholood — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Al-Fateh
2
Draws
2
Al Kholood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Kholood?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 0, Al Kholood have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al Kholood last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Al Kholood 0-0 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al Kholood?
Al Kholood have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Al Kholood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 60%, Al Kholood 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Fateh) and 65% (Al Kholood). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Kholood in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al Kholood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al Kholood?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Al-Fateh's games and 55% of Al Kholood's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al-Fateh's matches and 65% of Al Kholood's.
Do Al-Fateh and Al Kholood tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Al Kholood in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.