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Dominant Al Kholood run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Al-Fateh.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Kholood beat Al-Fateh 2-5 at Al Fateh club stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.83 xG and Al Kholood 1.45 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Al Kholood outscored their 1.45 projection by 3.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.19 / defence 1.01 against Al Kholood attack 0.99 / defence 1.01, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 46% | Draw 23% | Al Kholood 30%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Al Kholood win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 59%, Al Kholood 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Fateh's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Al Kholood's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Fateh 1.22 PPG, Al Kholood 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Kholood win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Kholood (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights