Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Fateh at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Al Khaleej Saihat travel to Al Fateh club stadium to take on Al-Fateh. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 October 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fateh have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Al-Fateh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Fateh at Al Fateh club stadium this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Al-Fateh are significantly better at Al Fateh club stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Khaleej Saihat stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al Khaleej Saihat have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Khaleej Saihat's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Fateh 0.80 PPG, Al Khaleej Saihat 0.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Al-Fateh have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 8 past contests while Al Khaleej Saihat have managed just 2 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2026, ended 1–0 with Al-Fateh winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Fateh and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Al-Fateh trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Al Khaleej Saihat trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 56% versus Al Khaleej Saihat 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 41% | Al Khaleej Saihat 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.22 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.809 / defence 0.845 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.764 / defence 1.131. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.272. Data: 39 Al-Fateh games / 40 Al Khaleej Saihat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 43% | Draw 36% | Al Khaleej Saihat 22%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 2.33 | Draw 2.78 | Al Khaleej Saihat 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Fateh as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 40% | Al Khaleej Saihat 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Al Fateh club stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 43% | Draw 36% | Al Khaleej Saihat 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Al-Fateh 1.22 / Al Khaleej Saihat 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 0.809 / def 0.845 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.764 / def 1.131 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Sunday 18 October 2026 at Al Fateh club stadium.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh club stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 43% chance of winning, Al Khaleej Saihat a 22% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al Khaleej Saihat will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Record (8 meetings): Al-Fateh 6W | Draws 0 | Al Khaleej Saihat 2W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Khaleej Saihat in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Fateh's attack rating (0.81) and Al Khaleej Saihat's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Khaleej Saihat's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
43%
2.35
36%
2.81
22%
4.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.04
0.82
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
2.35
43%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
4.58
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
19%
5.34
6%
15.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 10.6 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 13.0 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al Khaleej Saihat expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 0.82 for Al Khaleej Saihat, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 39 outings, Al-Fateh have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 9W 13D 17L record — L-L-D-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fateh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Khaleej Saihat's form line: 9W 11D 19L from 39 games, 0.97 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fateh on 1.03 PPG, Al Khaleej Saihat on 0.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Fateh have posted 1.37 PPG from 19 outings (7W 5D 7L).
On the road, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 3W 7D 9L from 19 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fateh come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Al Khaleej Saihat are on 1.33 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Early Season
Al Khaleej Saihat
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Khaleej Saihat in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 9W 13D 17L in their last 39 games (1.03 PPG), while Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 9W 11D 19L in their last 39 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al Khaleej Saihat away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.37 PPG; Al Khaleej Saihat away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Fateh and Al Khaleej Saihat runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Fateh have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Apr 2025, when Al-Fateh won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fateh's record when hosting Al Khaleej Saihat specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Al-Fateh
0
Draws
2
Al Khaleej Saihat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Khaleej Saihat?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 6, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al Khaleej Saihat last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Al-Fateh 1-0 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Fateh at 58%, Al Khaleej Saihat at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Al-Fateh) and 58% (Al Khaleej Saihat).
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al Khaleej Saihat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al Khaleej Saihat?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Al-Fateh's games and 74% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Al-Fateh's recent games and 58% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fateh and Al Khaleej Saihat tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Al Khaleej Saihat in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.