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Prediction vindicated as Al-Fateh edge out Al Khaleej Saihat 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Fateh beat Al Khaleej Saihat 1-0 at Al Fateh club stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.66 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.48 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Khaleej Saihat landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 0.93 / defence 1.06 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.99 / defence 1.14, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 42% | Draw 24% | Al Khaleej Saihat 34%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 56%, Al Khaleej Saihat 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Fateh's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Fateh 1.10 PPG, Al Khaleej Saihat 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fateh win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights