Al-Fateh 0-0 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Fateh face Al-Ittihad FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Al-Ittihad FC travel to Al Fateh club stadium to take on Al-Fateh. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 August 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fateh have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Fateh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Fateh at Al Fateh club stadium this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Al-Ittihad FC — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Ittihad FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ittihad FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Al-Ittihad FC's 1.70 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Al-Fateh's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The previous 9 encounters between these sides heavily favour Al-Ittihad FC, who boast 6 victories compared to 1 for Al-Fateh.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Jan 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Ittihad FC have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 4.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Al-Fateh trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Al-Ittihad FC trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 60% versus Al-Ittihad FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 43% | Al-Ittihad FC 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.06 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.882 / defence 0.923 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.044 / defence 0.861. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.430. Data: 37 Al-Fateh games / 37 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 28% | Draw 30% | Al-Ittihad FC 43%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 3.57 | Draw 3.33 | Al-Ittihad FC 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad FC are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 50% | Al-Ittihad FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Al Fateh club stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 28% | Draw 30% | Al-Ittihad FC 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Al-Fateh 1.06 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 0.882 / def 0.923 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.044 / def 0.861 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.430 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Al-Ittihad FC xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 29 August 2026 at Al Fateh club stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Fateh 0 - 0 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh club stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 28% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (9 meetings): Al-Fateh 1W | Draws 2 | Al-Ittihad FC 6W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Fateh's attack rating (0.88) and Al-Ittihad FC's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad FC's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
28%
3.62
30%
3.36
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.44
1.38
Al-Ittihad FC xG
3.62
28%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
7%
14.36
15%
6.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 12.0 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.38 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 37 outings, Al-Fateh have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 9W 11D 17L record — W-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fateh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ittihad FC's form line: 18W 8D 11L from 37 games, 1.68 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Ittihad FC are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Fateh.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Fateh have posted 1.39 PPG from 18 outings (7W 4D 7L).
On the road, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 7W 6D 5L from 18 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 1.62 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Early Season
Al-Ittihad FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 9W 11D 17L in their last 37 games (1.03 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 18W 8D 11L in their last 37 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.39 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Mar 2023, when Al-Ittihad FC won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fateh's record when hosting Al-Ittihad FC specifically: 1W 3D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al-Fateh
3
Draws
6
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 1, Al-Ittihad FC have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Al-Fateh 0-0 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Fateh at 61%, Al-Ittihad FC at 72%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Fateh) and 56% (Al-Ittihad FC).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al-Ittihad FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Al-Fateh's games and 72% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al-Fateh's recent games and 56% of Al-Ittihad FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Fateh's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC finished level at 0-0 at Al Fateh club stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.06 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.38 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Fateh fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Al-Ittihad FC landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 0.88 / defence 0.92 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.04 / defence 0.86, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 28% | Draw 30% | Al-Ittihad FC 43%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 43%, Al-Ittihad FC 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.