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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC finished level at 2-2 at Al Fateh club stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.77 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 2.42 xG, a combined 4.19. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.21 / defence 1.26 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.34 / defence 0.94, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 28% | Draw 20% | Al-Ittihad FC 52%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 60% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 59%, Al-Ittihad FC 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Fateh's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights