🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Al-Fateh cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al-Ittihad FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Fateh beat Al-Ittihad FC 2-0 at Al Fateh Club Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.27 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.70 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 0.97 / defence 1.09 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.20 / defence 0.92, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 28% | Draw 25% | Al-Ittihad FC 47%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Al-Fateh win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 66%, Al-Ittihad FC 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Fateh's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.

Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Al-Fateh winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights