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Shock result as Al-Hilal Saudi FC defy the odds to beat Al-Fateh 3-4.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Fateh 3-4 at Al Fateh Club Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.76 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.73 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Al-Fateh beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Hilal Saudi FC outscored their 1.73 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.08 / defence 0.86 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.40 / defence 1.05, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 39% | Draw 22% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 38%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Al-Hilal Saudi FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 65%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Fateh's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.52 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.72 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights