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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Al-Fayha defy the odds to beat Al-Fateh 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Fayha beat Al-Fateh 1-2 at Al Fateh club stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.84 xG and Al-Fayha 1.28 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al-Fateh fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.15 / defence 0.99 against Al-Fayha attack 0.86 / defence 1.10, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 50% | Draw 23% | Al-Fayha 27%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Al-Fayha win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 62%, Al-Fayha 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Fateh's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Fayha's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Fateh 1.15 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fayha win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights