Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 39%, yet in-form Al-Ahli Jeddah provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Fateh club stadium plays host to Al-Fateh versus Al-Ahli Jeddah in Pro League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Friday 9 October 2026 at 14:55 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Fateh's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Al-Fateh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Fateh's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Al Fateh club stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Al-Fateh are significantly better at Al Fateh club stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Ahli Jeddah have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 7W 0D 3L. Last five: W L L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Al-Ahli Jeddah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Al-Fateh 3W, Al-Ahli Jeddah 3W, 2D.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2026, ended 1–3 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Al-Fateh half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Al-Ahli Jeddah half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 56% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 41% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.22 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.805 / defence 0.838 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.883 / defence 1.123. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.302. Data: 39 Al-Fateh games / 39 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 39% | Draw 35% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 26%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 2.56 | Draw 2.86 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fateh at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Ahli Jeddah (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Fateh 40% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Al Fateh club stadium • Kick-off: Friday 9 Oct 2026, 14:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 39% | Draw 35% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 47% | xG Al-Fateh 1.22 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 0.805 / def 0.838 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.883 / def 1.123 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is scheduled to kick off at 14:55 on Friday 9 October 2026 at Al Fateh club stadium.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh club stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 39% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 26% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (8 meetings): Al-Fateh 3W | Draws 2 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 3W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Fateh's attack at 0.81x the league average against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack (0.88x) against Al-Fateh's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
39%
2.57
35%
2.84
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.19
0.96
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
2.57
39%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
15%
6.73
8%
13.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 10.8 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.2 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 0.96 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Fateh come into this having played 39 games, going 9W 13D 17L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for Al-Fateh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Ahli Jeddah sit at 2.23 PPG from 39 outings (27W 6D 6L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ahli Jeddah carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.20 PPG clear of Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Fateh's home form reads 7W 5D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ahli Jeddah have taken 1.84 points per game from 19 outings (11W 2D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 2.13 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Early Season
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 9W 13D 17L in their last 39 games (1.03 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 27W 6D 6L in their last 39 (2.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.37 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 1.84 PPG.
Have Al-Fateh or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fateh have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Fateh won 5-1 on 2 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fateh have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ahli Jeddah — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Al-Fateh
2
Draws
3
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 3, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-1 Al-Fateh.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 58%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Al-Fateh) and 47% (Al-Ahli Jeddah).
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 47%; Al-Fateh have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Al-Fateh's recent matches and 42% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Al-Fateh's recent games and 47% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fateh and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.