Al-Fateh vs Abha – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fateh vs Abha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Fateh and Abha meet at Al Fateh club stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 29 May 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Fateh have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh at Al Fateh club stadium this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Abha's overall Pro League record this term: 0W 3D 7L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Abha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Abha away from home this season: 0W 1D 5L from 6 away games — 0.17 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.60 for Al-Fateh, 0.30 for Abha — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Al-Fateh 3W, Abha 2W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2024, ended 1–2 with Abha winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Al-Fateh half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 46% of games.
Abha half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 54% versus Abha 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 54% | Abha 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.29 xG and Abha 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.733 / defence 1.339 | Abha attack 0.647 / defence 1.165. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.475. Al-Fateh's attack strength of 0.733 is below the league average — the 1.29 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 46 Al-Fateh games / 11 Abha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 34% | Draw 32% | Abha 34%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 2.94 | Draw 3.12 | Abha 2.94. The draw (32%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 32% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Fateh 40% | Abha 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Abha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Al Fateh club stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 34% | Draw 32% | Abha 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 55% | xG Al-Fateh 1.29 / Abha 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 0.733 / def 1.339 | Abha attack 0.647 / def 1.165 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.475 • Poisson stance: Draw (32%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Abha xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Abha kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Abha is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Saturday 29 May 2027 at Al Fateh club stadium.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Abha being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh club stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Abha part of?
Al-Fateh vs Abha is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Abha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 34% chance of winning, Abha a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Abha?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al-Fateh and Abha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Abha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Abha?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Fateh 3W | Draws 1 | Abha 2W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Abha in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Abha (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Fateh's attack at 0.73x the league average against Abha's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Abha's attack (0.65x) against Al-Fateh's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 46/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
34%
2.91
32%
3.16
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.56
1.28
Abha xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
10%
10.45
9%
10.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.7 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Abha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Abha expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.28 for Abha, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Abha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 11 outings, Al-Fateh have picked up 0.55 PPG on a 1W 3D 7L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Abha's form line: 0W 3D 8L from 11 games, 0.27 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-D. The sample for Abha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.55 PPG for Al-Fateh against 0.27 for Abha. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Fateh have posted 0.17 PPG from 6 outings (0W 1D 5L).
On the road, Abha have gone 0W 1D 5L from 6 away games — 0.17 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Fateh are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Abha are on 0.64 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 11 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Abha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Abha in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 1W 3D 7L in their last 11 games (0.55 PPG), while Abha have gone 0W 3D 8L in their last 11 (0.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Abha away?
Al-Fateh's home record (0.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 0.17 PPG; Abha away: 0.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Fateh won 3-0 on 10 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fateh have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Abha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Al-Fateh
1
Draws
2
Abha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Abha?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 3, Abha have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Abha last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2024, when Abha 2-1 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Abha?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 50%, Abha 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Al-Fateh and 67% for Abha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh have failed to score in 50% of games; Abha in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Abha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Abha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al-Fateh's recent matches and 50% of Abha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fateh vs Abha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al-Fateh's matches and 67% of Abha's.
Do Al-Fateh and Abha tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Abha in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.