Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al-Hazm at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hazm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Al-Hazm travel to to take on Al-Faisaly FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 September 2026, 15:50 UTC.
Form Analysis
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hazm have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Hazm haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Hazm have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Al-Faisaly FC have won 1, Al-Hazm 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2022, ended 1–0 with Al-Faisaly FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Faisaly FC 1.38 xG and Al-Hazm 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Al-Hazm attack 0.868 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.389. Data: 0 Al-Faisaly FC games / 34 Al-Hazm games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 36% | Draw 27% | Al-Hazm 37%. Fair-value odds: Al-Faisaly FC 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Hazm 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Hazm as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Hazm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Sep 2026, 15:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (2 meetings): Al-Faisaly FC 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Hazm 0W • Goals trend: 0.50 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Al-Faisaly FC 1 – 0 Al-Hazm • H2H markets: BTTS 0% | Over 2.5 0% | Win rates: Al-Faisaly FC 50% / Draw 50% / Al-Hazm 0% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 36% / draw 27% / away 37% • Goals contradiction: H2H averages only 0.50 goals/game but Poisson total xG is 2.77 (52% Over probability) — last season's attack strengths have improved relative to the historical pattern • BTTS: H2H rate 0%, Poisson probability 57% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data • Al-Hazm (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-W • Al-Hazm away split: 0.40 PPG from 10 | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | CS 0
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Faisaly FC 36% | Draw 27% | Al-Hazm 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Al-Faisaly FC 1.38 / Al-Hazm 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Al-Hazm attack 0.868 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.589 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: Al-Hazm (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Al-Faisaly FC xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Al-Hazm xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score probability matrix is a Premium feature
Upgrade to see the exact probability of every scoreline from 0-0 to 6-6, not just the headline 1X2 split.
Upgrade to Premium⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hazm is scheduled to kick off at 15:50 on Saturday 5 September 2026.
What competition is Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al-Faisaly FC a 36% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Hazm the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hazm?
• Record (2 meetings): Al-Faisaly FC 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Hazm 0W • Goals trend: 0.50 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Al-Faisaly FC 1 – 0 Al-Hazm • H2H markets: BTTS 0% | Over 2.5 0% | Win rates: Al-Faisaly FC 50% / Draw 50% / Al-Hazm 0% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 36% / draw 27% / away 37% • Goals contradiction: H2H averages only 0.50 goals/game but Poisson total xG is 2.77 (52% Over probability) — last season's attack strengths have improved relative to the historical pattern • BTTS: H2H rate 0%, Poisson probability 57% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Hazm in?
• No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data • Al-Hazm (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-W • Al-Hazm away split: 0.40 PPG from 10 | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | CS 0
What do the betting odds say about Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Hazm?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture