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Poisson model favours Al-Ettifaq (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ettifaq face Damac.

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Analysis

Damac make the trip to Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium to face Al-Ettifaq in Pro League, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Friday 6 February 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Form

Al-Ettifaq (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ettifaq have posted 4W 4D 2L at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Damac have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Damac's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form ledger tips toward Al-Ettifaq. A 1.30 PPG lead over Damac (2.00 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H History

The head-to-head record favours Al-Ettifaq, who have won 5 of the last 9 meetings against Damac — a 2D 2W return for the visitors.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2025, ended 3–1 with Al-Ettifaq winning.

The historical record gives Al-Ettifaq a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading

Al-Ettifaq half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).

Damac half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 58% versus Damac 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 57% | Damac 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.69 xG and Damac 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.895 / defence 0.903 | Damac attack 0.657 / defence 1.297. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.363. Damac bring a strong defensive rating of 1.297 — this is suppressing Al-Ettifaq's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Al-Ettifaq games / 53 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 58% | Draw 24% | Damac 17%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | Damac 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ettifaq (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Al-Ettifaq 50% | Damac 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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