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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al-Ettifaq edge out Al Wehda Club 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ettifaq beat Al Wehda Club 2-1 at EGO Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.12 xG and Al Wehda Club 1.12 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.74 / defence 0.89 against Al Wehda Club attack 0.88 / defence 0.98, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 36% | Draw 29% | Al Wehda Club 36%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 43%, Al Wehda Club 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Al Wehda Club's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Ettifaq 1.42 PPG, Al Wehda Club 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ettifaq win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights