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Al-Ettifaq cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al Shabab.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ettifaq beat Al Shabab 3-1 at EGO Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.05 xG and Al Shabab 1.96 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Shabab landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.81 / defence 1.42 against Al Shabab attack 1.03 / defence 0.88, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 20% | Draw 22% | Al Shabab 59%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Al-Ettifaq win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 43%, Al Shabab 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Al Shabab's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Ettifaq 1.31 PPG, Al Shabab 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ettifaq win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm. Al Shabab (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights