Al-Ettifaq 0-2 Al-Qadisiyah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ettifaq at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 9 as Al-Ettifaq welcome Al-Qadisiyah FC to Al Ettifaq Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 November 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Ettifaq — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium, Al-Ettifaq have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC stand at 4W 1D 3L from 8 Pro League matches — 1.62 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.12 per game is modest, conceding 0.88 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets from 8 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 2L across 4 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.62 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Al-Ettifaq) versus 1.62 (Al-Qadisiyah FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Al-Ettifaq trading profile (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Al-Qadisiyah FC trading profile (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 50% versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 38% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.12 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.728 / defence 1.120 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.751 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.276. Al-Ettifaq's attack strength of 0.728 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 Al-Ettifaq games / 8 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 37% | Draw 29% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 40% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Al Ettifaq Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Nov 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 37% | Draw 29% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.12 / Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.728 / def 1.120 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.751 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.496 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Ettifaq 0 - 2 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 37% chance of winning, Al-Qadisiyah FC a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Qadisiyah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Qadisiyah FC in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 4W-1D-3L in 8 | 1.62 PPG | GF 1.12 / GA 0.88 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Ettifaq's attack at 0.73x the league average against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack versus Al-Ettifaq's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
37%
2.73
29%
3.43
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.19
1.07
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
13%
7.99
11%
8.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 12.0 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Qadisiyah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.07 for Al-Qadisiyah FC, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ettifaq come into this having played 8 games, going 3W 2D 3L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Qadisiyah FC sit at 1.62 PPG from 8 outings (4W 1D 3L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Qadisiyah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ettifaq on 1.38 PPG, Al-Qadisiyah FC on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Al-Ettifaq's home form reads 1W 0D 3L across 4 games on their own ground, a 0.75 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.38 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Al-Qadisiyah FC have taken 1.00 points per game from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Qadisiyah FC's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Al-Qadisiyah FC are on 1.12 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Qadisiyah FC in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 3W 2D 3L in their last 8 games (1.38 PPG), while Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 4W 1D 3L in their last 8 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al-Qadisiyah FC away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 0.75 PPG; Al-Qadisiyah FC away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al-Qadisiyah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Feb 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ettifaq's record when hosting Al-Qadisiyah FC specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al-Ettifaq
1
Draws
2
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 1, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Qadisiyah FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 3-2 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Qadisiyah FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 25%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Ettifaq) and 50% (Al-Qadisiyah FC).
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC in 50%; Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Qadisiyah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 50% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Qadisiyah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 50% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al-Qadisiyah FC tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Qadisiyah FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al-Ettifaq.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al-Ettifaq 0-2 at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.12 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.07 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Al-Qadisiyah FC outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.73 / defence 1.12 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.75 / defence 1.03, drawn from 42/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 37% | Draw 29% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 34%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Al-Qadisiyah FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 38%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ettifaq 1.38 PPG, Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Qadisiyah FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.