Al-Ettifaq 2-3 Al Orubah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ettifaq at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ettifaq vs Al Orubah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 7 as Al-Ettifaq welcome Al Orubah to Al Ettifaq Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 20 October 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ettifaq have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Al-Ettifaq have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ettifaq at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al Orubah — All Games: 2W 1D 3L from 6 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.17 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Al Orubah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Orubah away from home this season: 0W 1D 3L from 4 away games — 0.25 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.25 is notably below their overall 1.17 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Al-Ettifaq carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.53 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.17. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Al-Ettifaq in-play and half-time data (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al Orubah in-play and half-time data (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Al-Ettifaq 33% | Al Orubah 33%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 33% | Al Orubah 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.42 xG and Al Orubah 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.717 / defence 0.918 | Al Orubah attack 0.795 / defence 1.366. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.273. Al-Ettifaq's attack strength of 0.717 is below the league average — the 1.42 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al Orubah bring a strong defensive rating of 1.366 — this is suppressing Al-Ettifaq's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Al-Ettifaq games / 6 Al Orubah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 48% | Draw 27% | Al Orubah 25%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Al Orubah 4.00. Al-Ettifaq hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 30% | Al Orubah 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al Orubah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Al Ettifaq Club Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Oct 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 48% | Draw 27% | Al Orubah 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.42 / Al Orubah 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.717 / def 0.918 | Al Orubah attack 0.795 / def 1.366 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Al Orubah xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al Orubah kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Orubah kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 20 October 2024 at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Orubah?
Al-Ettifaq 2 - 3 Al Orubah.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Orubah being played?
The match is being played at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Orubah part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Orubah is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al Orubah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 48% chance of winning, Al Orubah a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Orubah?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al Orubah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al Orubah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Orubah?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Orubah in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Al Orubah (all comps): 2W-1D-3L in 6 | 1.17 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Ettifaq's attack at 0.72x the league average against Al Orubah's defence at 1.37x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Orubah's attack versus Al-Ettifaq's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
48%
2.07
27%
3.71
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.35
0.93
Al Orubah xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
24%
4.13
Win to Nil
19%
5.23
6%
16.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.6 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Orubah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al Orubah expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 0.93 for Al Orubah, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Orubah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 6 outings, Al-Ettifaq have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 3W 1D 2L record — W-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Orubah's form line: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Al Orubah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Ettifaq are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Orubah.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Ettifaq have posted 1.00 PPG from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L). That actually lags their 1.67 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Al Orubah have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Orubah's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ettifaq come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al Orubah are on 1.00 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 6 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
Al Orubah
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Orubah in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 3W 1D 2L in their last 6 games (1.67 PPG), while Al Orubah have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al Orubah away?
Al-Ettifaq's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.00 PPG; Al Orubah away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al Orubah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al Orubah in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Al-Ettifaq
0
Draws
1
Al Orubah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Orubah?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 1, Al Orubah have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al Orubah last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Al Orubah 1-2 Al-Ettifaq.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Al Orubah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Al-Ettifaq 0% BTTS, Al Orubah 67%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 33% for Al-Ettifaq and 100% for Al Orubah. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 67% of games; Al Orubah in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al Orubah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al Orubah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 67% of Al Orubah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Orubah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Al-Ettifaq's matches and 100% of Al Orubah's.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al Orubah tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al Orubah in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Orubah defy the odds to beat Al-Ettifaq 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Orubah beat Al-Ettifaq 2-3 at Al Ettifaq Club Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.42 xG and Al Orubah 0.93 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Al Orubah outscored their 0.93 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.72 / defence 0.92 against Al Orubah attack 0.80 / defence 1.37, drawn from 40/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 48% | Draw 27% | Al Orubah 25%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Al Orubah win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 33%, Al Orubah 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Orubah's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ettifaq arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.17. Form was overturned, with Al Orubah winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Orubah (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.