Al-Ettifaq 2-3 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ettifaq face Al-Nassr.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Ettifaq host Al-Nassr at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 25 August 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Ettifaq — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Ettifaq have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ettifaq's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Nassr have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Al-Nassr have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Al-Nassr have gone 9W 0D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Nassr are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Al-Ettifaq, 4 for Al-Nassr and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2026, ended 0–1 with Al-Nassr winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al-Ettifaq trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Al-Nassr trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 56% versus Al-Nassr 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 58% | Al-Nassr 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.41 xG and Al-Nassr 2.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.242 / defence 1.094 | Al-Nassr attack 1.453 / defence 0.820. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.404. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack strength of 1.453 — the away xG of 2.23 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 36 Al-Ettifaq games / 36 Al-Nassr games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 24% | Draw 20% | Al-Nassr 56%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 4.17 | Draw 5.00 | Al-Nassr 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (56%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.64. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.64 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 2.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Nassr at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.64 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ettifaq 60% | Al-Nassr 30%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 25 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 24% | Draw 20% | Al-Nassr 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 68% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.41 / Al-Nassr 2.23 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.242 / def 1.094 | Al-Nassr attack 1.453 / def 0.820 | league avg home 1.386 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
2.23
Al-Nassr xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 25 August 2026 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr?
Al-Ettifaq 2 - 3 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 24% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 56% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr?
Record (9 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 2W | Draws 3 | Al-Nassr 4W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Al-Nassr (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Ettifaq's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Al-Nassr's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Nassr's attack versus Al-Ettifaq's defence, projects 2.23 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 1-3 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
24%
4.22
20%
4.93
56%
1.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
1 – 3
6.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
3.64
2.23
Al-Nassr xG
4.22
24%
Home win
4.93
20%
Draw
1.79
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.09
Clean Sheet
11%
9.32
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
3%
39.30
14%
7.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 8.2 | 9.2 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 2.23 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 3.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Ettifaq come into this having played 36 games, going 16W 8D 12L for 1.56 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Nassr sit at 2.56 PPG from 36 outings (30W 2D 4L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Nassr, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Nassr carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Ettifaq's home form reads 8W 6D 4L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Nassr have taken 2.39 points per game from 18 outings (14W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.72 scored and 0.78 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Nassr in 53% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
Al-Nassr
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 16W 8D 12L in their last 36 games (1.56 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 30W 2D 4L in their last 36 (2.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (2.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.67 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 2.39 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 53%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 25 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Nassr go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Sep 2024, when Al-Nassr won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ettifaq's record when hosting Al-Nassr specifically: 1W 3D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al-Ettifaq
3
Draws
5
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, Al-Nassr have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 2-3 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 61%, Al-Nassr 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Al-Ettifaq and 72% for Al-Nassr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 61% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Nassr in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al-Nassr?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 44% of Al-Nassr's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Al-Ettifaq's matches and 72% of Al-Nassr's.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Nassr edge out Al-Ettifaq 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al-Ettifaq 2-3 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.41 xG and Al-Nassr 2.23 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 1.24 / defence 1.09 against Al-Nassr attack 1.45 / defence 0.82, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 24% | Draw 20% | Al-Nassr 56%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 58%, Al-Nassr 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.56 PPG against 1.56. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.