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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium, Regular Season - 12, as Al-Ettifaq and Al-Nassr drew 2-2 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.16 xG and Al-Nassr 2.31 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 1.02 / defence 1.19 against Al-Nassr attack 1.35 / defence 0.78, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 17% | Draw 21% | Al-Nassr 62%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 57%, Al-Nassr 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Nassr's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.48. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights