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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al-Ettifaq edge out Al Kholood 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ettifaq beat Al Kholood 2-1 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.69 xG and Al Kholood 1.27 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.91 / defence 0.94 against Al Kholood attack 0.95 / defence 1.18, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 47% | Draw 24% | Al Kholood 29%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 53%, Al Kholood 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Al Kholood's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Ettifaq 1.47 PPG, Al Kholood 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ettifaq win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights