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Prediction vindicated as Al Kholood edge out Al-Ettifaq 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Kholood beat Al-Ettifaq 2-3 at EGO Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.02 xG and Al Kholood 1.40 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Kholood outscored their 1.40 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.71 / defence 1.28 against Al Kholood attack 0.81 / defence 1.04, drawn from 47/13 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 27% | Draw 27% | Al Kholood 46%, with Al Kholood to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 46%, Al Kholood 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Al Kholood's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Ettifaq 1.15 PPG, Al Kholood 0.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Kholood win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Kholood (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights