Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Al-Ettifaq (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ettifaq face Al Khaleej Saihat.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium plays host to Al-Ettifaq versus Al Khaleej Saihat in Pro League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Saturday 10 October 2026 at 14:55 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Ettifaq have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Al-Ettifaq have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ettifaq's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Khaleej Saihat's overall Pro League record this term: 0W 4D 6L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al Khaleej Saihat have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Khaleej Saihat's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Al-Ettifaq's favour (1.50 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Al-Ettifaq, who have won 5 of the last 8 meetings against Al Khaleej Saihat — a 1D 2W return for the visitors.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2026, ended 5–0 with Al-Ettifaq winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Ettifaq and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Ettifaq — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Al Khaleej Saihat — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 52% versus Al Khaleej Saihat 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 58% | Al Khaleej Saihat 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.74 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.141 / defence 1.349 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.756 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.302. Data: 39 Al-Ettifaq games / 40 Al Khaleej Saihat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 45% | Draw 29% | Al Khaleej Saihat 27%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Al Khaleej Saihat 3.70. Al-Ettifaq hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ettifaq are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.07 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 70% | Al Khaleej Saihat 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 14:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 45% | Draw 29% | Al Khaleej Saihat 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 63% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.74 / Al Khaleej Saihat 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.141 / def 1.349 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.756 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat is scheduled to kick off at 14:55 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat being played?
The match is being played at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 45% chance of winning, Al Khaleej Saihat a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al Khaleej Saihat will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Record (8 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 5W | Draws 1 | Al Khaleej Saihat 2W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Khaleej Saihat in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Ettifaq's attack at 1.14x the league average against Al Khaleej Saihat's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Khaleej Saihat's attack (0.76x) against Al-Ettifaq's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 39/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
45%
2.25
29%
3.49
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
3.07
1.33
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
2.25
45%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
18%
5.68
Win to Nil
12%
8.47
5%
21.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.8 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al Khaleej Saihat expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.33 for Al Khaleej Saihat, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 40 outings, Al-Ettifaq have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 17W 9D 14L record — W-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Khaleej Saihat's form line: 10W 11D 19L from 40 games, 1.02 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Ettifaq are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Khaleej Saihat.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Ettifaq have posted 1.40 PPG from 20 outings (7W 7D 6L).
On the road, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 4W 7D 9L from 20 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ettifaq come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Al Khaleej Saihat are on 1.40 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Khaleej Saihat in 60%.
Last 40 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
Al Khaleej Saihat
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Khaleej Saihat in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 17W 9D 14L in their last 40 games (1.50 PPG), while Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 10W 11D 19L in their last 40 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al Khaleej Saihat away?
Al-Ettifaq's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.40 PPG; Al Khaleej Saihat away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al Khaleej Saihat been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Al Khaleej Saihat in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ettifaq won 0-5 on 9 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ettifaq have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al Khaleej Saihat — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Al-Ettifaq
1
Draws
2
Al Khaleej Saihat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Khaleej Saihat?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 5, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al Khaleej Saihat last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Al Khaleej Saihat 0-5 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 55% for Al-Ettifaq, 75% for Al Khaleej Saihat — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Al-Ettifaq and 60% for Al Khaleej Saihat. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al Khaleej Saihat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al Khaleej Saihat?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Al-Ettifaq's games and 75% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Khaleej Saihat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Al-Ettifaq's matches and 60% of Al Khaleej Saihat's.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al Khaleej Saihat tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Al Khaleej Saihat in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.