Al-Ettifaq 1-4 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Ittihad FC make the trip to Al-Ettifaq Club Stadium to face Al-Ettifaq in Pro League, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Tuesday 20 October 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Ettifaq (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ettifaq have posted 2W 4D 4L at Al-Ettifaq Club Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Al-Ettifaq Club Stadium this season.
Al-Ittihad FC's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad FC away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Al-Ettifaq, 1.70 for Al-Ittihad FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al-Ettifaq register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Al-Ittihad FC in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Al-Ittihad FC hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 9 meetings. The hosts have won just 2 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2026, ended 1–3 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Ittihad FC have won 5 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Al-Ettifaq half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Al-Ittihad FC half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 52% versus Al-Ittihad FC 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 55% | Al-Ittihad FC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.22 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.916 / defence 1.115 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.057 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.418. Data: 43 Al-Ettifaq games / 42 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 25% | Draw 30% | Al-Ittihad FC 45%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 4.00 | Draw 3.33 | Al-Ittihad FC 2.22. Al-Ittihad FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.22 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad FC are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 70% | Al-Ittihad FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Al-Ettifaq Club Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 20 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 25% | Draw 30% | Al-Ittihad FC 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.22 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.916 / def 1.115 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.057 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.418 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Al-Ittihad FC xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 20 October 2026 at Al-Ettifaq Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ettifaq 1 - 4 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Al-Ettifaq Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 25% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 45% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (9 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 2W | Draws 2 | Al-Ittihad FC 5W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-D-W. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Ettifaq's attack rating (0.92) and Al-Ittihad FC's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Ittihad FC's attack (1.06x) against Al-Ettifaq's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
25%
4.05
30%
3.28
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.89
1.67
Al-Ittihad FC xG
4.05
25%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
19%
5.32
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
5%
21.53
13%
7.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 9.3 | 7.8 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.3 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.67 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Ettifaq's recent record stands at 17W 11D 14L from 42 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad FC, meanwhile, have gone 21W 9D 12L across 42 games — 1.71 PPG, with D-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for Al-Ettifaq against 1.71 for Al-Ittihad FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Ettifaq have managed 7W 8D 6L from 21 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ittihad FC's away record stands at 8W 7D 6L across 21 trips, a 1.48 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 1.64 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC in 62%.
Last 42 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 17W 11D 14L in their last 42 games (1.48 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 21W 9D 12L in their last 42 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.38 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al-Ittihad FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad FC in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 20 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Ittihad FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ettifaq won 0-5 on 10 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ettifaq have gone 0W 1D 5L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ittihad FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al-Ettifaq
2
Draws
6
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, Al-Ittihad FC have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 20 October 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 1-4 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 57%, Al-Ittihad FC 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Al-Ettifaq) and 57% (Al-Ittihad FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al-Ittihad FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Al-Ettifaq's games and 71% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Al-Ettifaq's matches and 57% of Al-Ittihad FC's.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ittihad FC run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Al-Ettifaq.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Ettifaq 1-4 at Al-Ettifaq Club Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.22 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.67 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC outscored their 1.67 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.92 / defence 1.11 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.06 / defence 0.95, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 25% | Draw 30% | Al-Ittihad FC 45%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 55%, Al-Ittihad FC 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ettifaq 1.48 PPG, Al-Ittihad FC 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ittihad FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.