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Dominant Al-Hilal Saudi FC run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Al-Ettifaq.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Ettifaq 0-5 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.54 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.52 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Al-Hilal Saudi FC outscored their 1.52 projection by 3.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.89 / defence 0.82 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.29 / defence 1.15, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 38% | Draw 24% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 38%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Al-Hilal Saudi FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 55%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.44 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights