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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hazm share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium, Regular Season - 7, as Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hazm drew 2-2 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.18 xG and Al-Hazm 1.25 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.80 / defence 1.14 against Al-Hazm attack 0.76 / defence 1.01, drawn from 40/6 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 34% | Draw 29% | Al-Hazm 37%, with Al-Hazm to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 83%, Al-Hazm 17%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Hazm's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Ettifaq 1.17 PPG, Al-Hazm 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights