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Al-Fayha cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al-Ettifaq.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Fayha beat Al-Ettifaq 0-2 at EGO Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.23 xG and Al-Fayha 1.28 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.87 / defence 1.19 against Al-Fayha attack 0.82 / defence 0.92, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 35% | Draw 27% | Al-Fayha 38%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 45%, Al-Fayha 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Al-Fayha's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Ettifaq 1.43 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fayha win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights