Al-Ettifaq 1-2 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 20 as Al-Ettifaq welcome Al-Fateh to EGO Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 14 February 2025 at 15:05 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ettifaq have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq's home record at EGO Stadium: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Pro League appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fateh stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fateh have posted 0W 1D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game.
Al-Ettifaq carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Al-Fateh have the better historical record — 5 wins from 6 previous contests against 1 for Al-Ettifaq.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2024, ended 2–1 with Al-Ettifaq winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Fateh have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Al-Ettifaq in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Al-Fateh in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ettifaq 47% and Al-Fateh 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 43% | Al-Fateh 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 2.07 xG and Al-Fateh 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.917 / defence 1.317 | Al-Fateh attack 0.701 / defence 1.423. League average goals — home 1.582 / away 1.337. Al-Fateh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.423 — this is suppressing Al-Ettifaq's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Al-Ettifaq games / 53 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 57% | Draw 21% | Al-Fateh 22%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 1.75 | Draw 4.76 | Al-Fateh 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ettifaq (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.07 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Al-Fateh lead the H2H ledger, but Al-Ettifaq carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.30 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Al-Ettifaq 40% | Al-Fateh 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: EGO Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 14 Feb 2025, 15:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 57% | Draw 21% | Al-Fateh 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 62% | xG Al-Ettifaq 2.07 / Al-Fateh 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.917 / def 1.317 | Al-Fateh attack 0.701 / def 1.423 | league avg home 1.582 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Al-Fateh xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 15:05 on Friday 14 February 2025 at EGO Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh?
Al-Ettifaq 1 - 2 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at EGO Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 57% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 22% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Fateh 5W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Al-Fateh (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Ettifaq's attack at 0.92x the league average against Al-Fateh's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 2.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al-Ettifaq's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
57%
1.77
21%
4.74
22%
4.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
3.30
1.23
Al-Fateh xG
1.77
57%
Home win
4.74
21%
Draw
4.47
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
13%
7.89
Win to Nil
16%
6.07
3%
35.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.23 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 53 outings, Al-Ettifaq have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 19W 16D 18L record — W-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fateh's form line: 14W 13D 26L from 53 games, 1.04 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-L. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Ettifaq on 1.38 PPG, Al-Fateh on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Ettifaq have posted 1.19 PPG from 26 outings (8W 7D 11L).
On the road, Al-Fateh have gone 6W 5D 15L from 26 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.38 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh in 74%.
Last 53 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 19W 16D 18L in their last 53 games (1.38 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 14W 13D 26L in their last 53 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Ettifaq's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.19 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al-Fateh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Al-Fateh in 6%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Ettifaq have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2022, when Al-Fateh won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ettifaq's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Al-Ettifaq
0
Draws
7
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 3, Al-Fateh have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Al-Fateh 0-1 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 54%, Al-Fateh 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Al-Ettifaq and 73% for Al-Fateh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 31% of games; Al-Fateh in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Al-Ettifaq's games and 73% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al-Ettifaq's matches and 73% of Al-Fateh's.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Fateh defy the odds to beat Al-Ettifaq 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fateh beat Al-Ettifaq 1-2 at EGO Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 2.07 xG and Al-Fateh 1.23 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.92 / defence 1.32 against Al-Fateh attack 0.70 / defence 1.42, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 57% | Draw 21% | Al-Fateh 22%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Al-Fateh win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 43%, Al-Fateh 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ettifaq 1.38 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fateh win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.