Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Al-Ahli Jeddah travel to Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium to take on Al-Ettifaq. The game is scheduled for Monday 24 May 2027, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ettifaq stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium this season.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have recorded 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ahli Jeddah away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Ahli Jeddah are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Ettifaq register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, Al-Ahli Jeddah 3, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jan 2026, ended 0–4 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Al-Ettifaq in-play and half-time data (44 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play and half-time data (44 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 54% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 57% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.39 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.904 / defence 1.291 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.192 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.432. Data: 44 Al-Ettifaq games / 43 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 22% | Draw 24% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 54%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 4.55 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.85. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 2.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ahli Jeddah at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.59 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 70% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 24 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 22% | Draw 24% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 69% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.39 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.20 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.904 / def 1.291 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.192 / def 1.102 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
2.20
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
69%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Monday 24 May 2027 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 22% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 54% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (8 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 2W | Draws 3 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 3W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Ettifaq's attack rating (0.90) and Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack versus Al-Ettifaq's defence, projects 2.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 1-3 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
22%
4.56
24%
4.18
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
1 – 3
6.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
3.59
2.20
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
4.56
22%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.19
Clean Sheet
11%
9.05
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
2%
41.24
13%
7.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 8.4 | 9.3 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 2.20 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ettifaq's recent record stands at 18W 11D 15L from 44 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ahli Jeddah, meanwhile, have gone 32W 6D 6L across 44 games — 2.32 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ahli Jeddah by 0.84 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ettifaq heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Ettifaq have managed 8W 8D 7L from 23 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record stands at 14W 3D 6L across 23 trips, a 1.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 2.23 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 18W 11D 15L in their last 44 games (1.48 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 32W 6D 6L in their last 44 (2.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.39 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 1.96 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2021, when Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ettifaq's record when hosting Al-Ahli Jeddah specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Al-Ettifaq
3
Draws
3
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 4-0 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 61%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Al-Ettifaq) and 48% (Al-Ahli Jeddah).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Al-Ahli Jeddah in 52%; Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 39% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 48% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.