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Stalemate at Al-Ettifaq's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ettifaq and Al-Ahli Jeddah finished level at 0-0 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.36 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.40 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Al-Ahli Jeddah landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.98 / defence 0.88 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.00 / defence 0.95, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 36% | Draw 25% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 38%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 54%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.51. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights