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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al-Ahli Jeddah edge out Al-Ettifaq 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al-Ettifaq 1-2 at EGO Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 0.94 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.87 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.80 / defence 1.39 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.93 / defence 0.82, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 19% | Draw 22% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 59%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 41%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.35. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights