Al-Ettifaq 3-2 Al-Adalah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ettifaq at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Adalah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Adalah make the trip to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium to face Al-Ettifaq in Pro League, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Friday 3 February 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Al-Ettifaq (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ettifaq have posted 4W 1D 5L at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Al-Adalah's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Adalah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Adalah's away record: 0W 2D 5L from 7 road trips in Pro League this season (0.29 PPG). Away from home they average 0.43 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.29 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Al-Ettifaq half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Al-Adalah half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 29% versus Al-Adalah 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 43% | Al-Adalah 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.65 xG and Al-Adalah 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.935 / defence 0.919 | Al-Adalah attack 0.634 / defence 1.261. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.113. Al-Adalah bring a strong defensive rating of 1.261 — this is suppressing Al-Ettifaq's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Al-Ettifaq games / 14 Al-Adalah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 62% | Draw 24% | Al-Adalah 14%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 1.61 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Adalah 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ettifaq (62%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ettifaq at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ettifaq 50% | Al-Adalah 43%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Adalah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 3 Feb 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 62% | Draw 24% | Al-Adalah 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 39% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.65 / Al-Adalah 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.935 / def 0.919 | Al-Adalah attack 0.634 / def 1.261 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Al-Adalah xG
39%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Adalah kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Adalah kicked off at 16:30 on Friday 3 February 2023 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Adalah?
Al-Ettifaq 3 - 2 Al-Adalah.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Adalah being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Adalah part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Adalah is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Adalah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 62% chance of winning, Al-Adalah a 14% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Adalah?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Adalah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Adalah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Adalah?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Adalah in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Al-Adalah (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Ettifaq's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Al-Adalah's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. Flip it around — Al-Adalah's attack (0.63x) against Al-Ettifaq's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.65.
These ratings are built from 44/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.7%), 1-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
62%
1.62
24%
4.16
14%
6.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.30
0.65
Al-Adalah xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
6.96
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.60
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
52%
1.91
19%
5.20
Win to Nil
32%
3.10
3%
36.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 10.7 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.7 | 8.9 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Adalah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Adalah expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 0.65 for Al-Adalah, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Adalah?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 14 outings, Al-Ettifaq have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 4W 4D 6L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Adalah's form line: 2W 3D 9L from 14 games, 0.64 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-D. The sample for Al-Adalah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Ettifaq are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Adalah.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Ettifaq have posted 1.43 PPG from 7 outings (3W 1D 3L).
On the road, Al-Adalah have gone 0W 2D 5L from 7 away games — 0.29 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ettifaq come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Al-Adalah are on 0.57 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ettifaq have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al-Adalah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Adalah in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 4W 4D 6L in their last 14 games (1.14 PPG), while Al-Adalah have gone 2W 3D 9L in their last 14 (0.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al-Adalah away?
Al-Ettifaq's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.43 PPG; Al-Adalah away: 0.29 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al-Adalah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Al-Adalah in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Al-Ettifaq
0
Draws
0
Al-Adalah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Adalah?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, Al-Adalah have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Adalah last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2023, when Al-Adalah 0-2 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Adalah?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Ettifaq see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Al-Adalah see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 43%, Al-Adalah 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Al-Ettifaq) and 43% (Al-Adalah).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 29% of games; Al-Adalah in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Adalah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al-Adalah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 43% of Al-Adalah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Adalah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 43% of Al-Adalah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ettifaq edge out Al-Adalah 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Al-Adalah 3-2 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.65 xG and Al-Adalah 0.65 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Adalah outscored their 0.65 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.94 / defence 0.92 against Al-Adalah attack 0.63 / defence 1.26, drawn from 44/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 62% | Draw 24% | Al-Adalah 14%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 43%, Al-Adalah 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Adalah's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ettifaq arrived the stronger side — 1.14 PPG against 0.64. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Adalah (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.43 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.