Al-Ettifaq vs Abha – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ettifaq (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ettifaq face Abha.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Ettifaq host Abha at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 11 March 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Ettifaq — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Al-Ettifaq have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ettifaq's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Abha have recorded 0W 2D 5L from 7 outings — 0.29 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.71 per game is modest, conceding 1.86 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Abha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Abha have posted 0W 1D 3L from 4 away outings — 0.25 PPG. Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game.
Al-Ettifaq carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.21 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.29. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Al-Ettifaq have won 4, Abha 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Sep 2026, ended 1–0 with Al-Ettifaq winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Ettifaq trading profile (7 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Abha trading profile (7 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 43% versus Abha 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 57% | Abha 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.69 xG and Abha 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.968 / defence 1.190 | Abha attack 0.740 / defence 1.277. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.337. Abha bring a strong defensive rating of 1.277 — this is suppressing Al-Ettifaq's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Al-Ettifaq games / 7 Abha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 46% | Draw 31% | Abha 23%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.17 | Draw 3.23 | Abha 4.35. Al-Ettifaq hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 70% | Abha 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Abha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 11 Mar 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 46% | Draw 31% | Abha 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.69 / Abha 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.968 / def 1.190 | Abha attack 0.740 / def 1.277 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Abha xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Abha kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Abha is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Thursday 11 March 2027 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Abha being played?
The match is being played at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Abha part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Abha is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Abha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 46% chance of winning, Abha a 23% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Abha?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Abha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Abha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Abha?
Record (7 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 4W | Draws 1 | Abha 2W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Abha in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Abha (all comps): 0W-2D-5L in 7 | 0.29 PPG | GF 0.71 / GA 1.86 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Ettifaq's attack at 0.97x the league average against Abha's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Abha's attack versus Al-Ettifaq's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
46%
2.17
31%
3.27
23%
4.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.87
1.18
Abha xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
4.28
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
18%
5.41
Win to Nil
14%
7.05
4%
23.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.3 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Abha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Abha expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.18 for Abha, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Abha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Ettifaq's recent record stands at 3W 2D 2L from 7 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Abha, meanwhile, have gone 0W 2D 5L across 7 games — 0.29 PPG, with D-L-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Abha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ettifaq by 1.28 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Abha heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Ettifaq have managed 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.57 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Abha's away record stands at 0W 1D 3L across 4 trips, a 0.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ettifaq come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Abha are on 0.71 scored and 1.86 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
Abha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Abha in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 games (1.57 PPG), while Abha have gone 0W 2D 5L in their last 7 (0.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Abha away?
Al-Ettifaq's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.00 PPG; Abha away: 0.25 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Abha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Abha in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Ettifaq and Abha runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 4 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Ettifaq go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Mar 2024, when Al-Ettifaq won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ettifaq's record when hosting Abha specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Al-Ettifaq
1
Draws
2
Abha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Abha?
From 7 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 4, Abha have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Abha last play each other?
They last met on 4 September 2026, when Abha 0-1 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Abha?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 50%, Abha 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Al-Ettifaq and 75% for Abha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 50% of games; Abha in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Abha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Abha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 50% of Abha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Abha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Al-Ettifaq's matches and 75% of Abha's.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Abha tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Abha in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.