Al Diriyah 0-2 Al-Qadisiyah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Diriyah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Diriyah host Al-Qadisiyah FC at Al-Awwal Park in Pro League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 3 September 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Diriyah — All Games: 2W 1D 1L from 4 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.75 points per game. Last five: L W D W. They are averaging 1.25 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Al Diriyah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Qadisiyah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's form when playing away from home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Qadisiyah FC — 0.75 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.75). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Al Diriyah trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Al-Qadisiyah FC trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Diriyah 25% versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al Diriyah 25% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Diriyah 0.76 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Diriyah attack 0.690 / defence 1.050 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.344 / defence 0.779. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.406. Al Diriyah's attack strength of 0.690 is below the league average — the 0.76 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence strength of 0.779 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Qadisiyah FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.344 — the away xG of 1.99 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 4 Al Diriyah games / 38 Al-Qadisiyah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Diriyah 12% | Draw 24% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 64%. Fair-value odds: Al Diriyah 8.33 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.56. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (64%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al Diriyah 25% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Diriyah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Al-Awwal Park • Kick-off: Thursday 3 Sep 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Diriyah 12% | Draw 24% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 48% | xG Al Diriyah 0.76 / Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.99 • Poisson strength factors: Al Diriyah attack 0.690 / def 1.050 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.344 / def 0.779 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
Al Diriyah xG
Expected Goals
1.99
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
48%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Diriyah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kick off?
Al Diriyah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 3 September 2026 at Al-Awwal Park.
What was the final score in Al Diriyah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al Diriyah 0 - 2 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Where is Al Diriyah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC being played?
The match is being played at Al-Awwal Park.
What competition is Al Diriyah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC part of?
Al Diriyah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Diriyah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Diriyah a 12% chance of winning, Al-Qadisiyah FC a 64% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Diriyah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Al Diriyah and Al-Qadisiyah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Diriyah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Diriyah and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Diriyah and Al-Qadisiyah FC in?
Al Diriyah (all comps): 2W-1D-1L in 4 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-D-W. Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al Diriyah's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.76. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack versus Al Diriyah's defence, projects 1.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 12.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.5%), 1-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
12%
8.53
24%
4.19
64%
1.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.7%
Away win
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
Al Diriyah xG
Total xG
2.75
1.99
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
8.53
12%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
1.55
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
14%
7.28
47%
2.14
Win to Nil
2%
62.11
30%
3.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 12.8 | 12.7 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Diriyah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Al Diriyah and Al-Qadisiyah FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Al Diriyah and 1.99 for Al-Qadisiyah FC, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Diriyah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 4 outings, Al Diriyah have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 2W 1D 1L record — L-W-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al Diriyah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's form line: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games, 2.25 PPG, last five W-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Diriyah.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Diriyah are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Al-Qadisiyah FC are on 2.00 scored and 0.75 conceded. Al-Qadisiyah FC's attacking output running into Al Diriyah's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al Diriyah have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al Diriyah have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Diriyah
Early Season
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Diriyah and Al-Qadisiyah FC in coming into this match?
Al Diriyah have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 games (1.75 PPG), while Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 3W 0D 1L in their last 4 (2.25 PPG).
Have Al Diriyah or Al-Qadisiyah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Diriyah have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 3 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Al Diriyah
0
Draws
1
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Diriyah and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
From 1 meetings on record, Al Diriyah have won 0, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Diriyah and Al-Qadisiyah FC last play each other?
They last met on 3 September 2026, when Al Diriyah 0-2 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Diriyah and Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Diriyah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Diriyah 25%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Al Diriyah) and 50% (Al-Qadisiyah FC).
On the defensive side: Al Diriyah keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Diriyah home games / Al-Qadisiyah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Diriyah play Al-Qadisiyah FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Al Diriyah's recent matches and 50% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Diriyah vs Al-Qadisiyah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Al Diriyah's recent games and 50% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Diriyah and Al-Qadisiyah FC tend to score early?
Al Diriyah have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al-Qadisiyah FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Qadisiyah FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al Diriyah.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al Diriyah 0-2 at Al-Awwal Park, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Diriyah 0.76 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.99 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Diriyah attack 0.69 / defence 1.05 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.34 / defence 0.78, drawn from 4/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Diriyah 12% | Draw 24% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 64%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Diriyah 25%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Diriyah's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.75. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Diriyah managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.