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Poisson model rates Al-Hazm at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Diriyah vs Al-Hazm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Al Diriyah host Al-Hazm at Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 11 February 2027 at 20:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hazm stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Hazm haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Hazm have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Diriyah 1.38 xG and Al-Hazm 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Diriyah attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Al-Hazm attack 0.868 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.389. Data: 0 Al Diriyah games / 34 Al-Hazm games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Al Diriyah 36% | Draw 27% | Al-Hazm 37%. Fair-value odds: Al Diriyah 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Hazm 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Hazm are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Hazm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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