🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Al Diriyah at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Diriyah vs Al-Fayha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Al-Fayha make the trip to Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Stadium to face Al Diriyah in Pro League, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Thursday 26 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Form

Al-Fayha have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Fayha haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Al-Fayha's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Diriyah 1.47 xG and Al-Fayha 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Diriyah attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Al-Fayha attack 0.903 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.389. Data: 0 Al Diriyah games / 34 Al-Fayha games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Al Diriyah 38% | Draw 26% | Al-Fayha 36%. Fair-value odds: Al Diriyah 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Fayha 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al Diriyah as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Diriyah if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights