Al Baten 2-2 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Damac at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Baten vs Damac fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al-Batin FC Stadium plays host to Al Baten versus Damac in Pro League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Thursday 6 October 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al Baten's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Al Baten have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Al-Batin FC Stadium, Al Baten have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Damac (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Damac have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Damac's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Al Baten, 1.20 for Damac — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al Baten lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jun 2022, ended 2–1 with Al Baten winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Al Baten — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Damac — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Baten 37% versus Damac 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Baten 49% | Damac 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Baten 1.02 xG and Damac 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Baten attack 0.856 / defence 1.632 | Damac attack 1.007 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.187 / away 1.017. Data: 35 Al Baten games / 35 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Baten 23% | Draw 24% | Damac 53%. Fair-value odds: Al Baten 4.35 | Draw 4.17 | Damac 1.89. Damac hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Damac at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Damac if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Baten 50% | Damac 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Baten vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Al-Batin FC Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 6 Oct 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Baten 23% | Draw 24% | Damac 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Al Baten 1.02 / Damac 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Al Baten attack 0.856 / def 1.632 | Damac attack 1.007 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.187 / away 1.017 • Poisson stance: Damac (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Al Baten xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Damac xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Baten vs Damac kick off?
Al Baten vs Damac kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 6 October 2022 at Al-Batin FC Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Baten vs Damac?
Al Baten 2 - 2 Damac.
Where is Al Baten vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at Al-Batin FC Stadium.
What competition is Al Baten vs Damac part of?
Al Baten vs Damac is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Baten vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al Baten a 23% chance of winning, Damac a 53% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Baten vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al Baten and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al Baten vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Baten and Damac?
Record (2 meetings): Al Baten 1W | Draws 1 | Damac 0W.
What form are Al Baten and Damac in?
Al Baten (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Damac (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al Baten's attack at 0.86x the league average against Damac's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Damac's attack (1.01x) against Al Baten's defence (1.63x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.9%), 1-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
23%
4.35
24%
4.12
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Al Baten xG
Total xG
2.69
1.67
Damac xG
4.35
23%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
19%
5.33
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
4%
23.18
19%
5.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 11.4 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Baten vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Al Baten and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Al Baten and 1.67 for Damac, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Baten vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Baten's recent record stands at 8W 9D 18L from 35 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al Baten, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Damac, meanwhile, have gone 15W 9D 11L across 35 games — 1.54 PPG, with W-W-L-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Damac, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Damac by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Baten heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al Baten have managed 6W 5D 6L from 17 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.94 PPG overall — Al Baten are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Damac's away record stands at 6W 4D 7L across 17 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Baten are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.29 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Baten
Early Season
Damac
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Baten and Damac in coming into this match?
Al Baten have gone 8W 9D 18L in their last 35 games (0.94 PPG), while Damac have gone 15W 9D 11L in their last 35 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Baten at home or Damac away?
Al Baten's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Baten at home: 1.35 PPG; Damac away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Al Baten or Damac been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Baten have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Damac in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Baten have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Damac — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al Baten
2
Draws
1
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Baten and Damac?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Baten have won 1, Damac have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Baten and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2023, when Damac 1-0 Al Baten.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Baten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Damac see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Baten 41%, Damac 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Al Baten) and 53% (Damac).
On the defensive side: Al Baten keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Al Baten have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Baten home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Baten play Damac?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Al Baten's recent matches and 53% of Damac's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Baten vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Al Baten's recent games and 53% of Damac's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Baten and Damac tend to score early?
Al Baten have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Damac in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Baten and Damac share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al-Batin FC Stadium, Regular Season - 6, as Al Baten and Damac drew 2-2 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Baten 1.02 xG and Damac 1.67 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al Baten beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Baten attack 0.86 / defence 1.63 against Damac attack 1.01 / defence 1.00, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Baten 23% | Draw 24% | Damac 53%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Baten 49%, Damac 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Baten's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.
Damac's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Damac arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Baten (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.