Al Baten 0-4 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Baten vs Al-Nassr encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 4 as Al Baten welcome Al-Nassr to Al-Batin FC Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 15 September 2022 at 16:40 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Baten stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Al Baten have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Baten's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Al-Batin FC Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Al-Nassr — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Nassr have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Nassr away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Nassr are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al Baten, 2 for Al-Nassr and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2022, ended 3–4 with Al-Nassr winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al Baten in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
Al-Nassr in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Baten 39% versus Al-Nassr 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Baten 48% | Al-Nassr 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Baten 1.05 xG and Al-Nassr 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Baten attack 0.972 / defence 1.461 | Al-Nassr attack 1.069 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.099 / away 1.054. Data: 33 Al Baten games / 33 Al-Nassr games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al Baten 24% | Draw 25% | Al-Nassr 51%. Fair-value odds: Al Baten 4.17 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Nassr 1.96. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Nassr as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Al Baten 50% | Al-Nassr 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Baten vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Al-Batin FC Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 15 Sep 2022, 16:40 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Baten 24% | Draw 25% | Al-Nassr 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Al Baten 1.05 / Al-Nassr 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Al Baten attack 0.972 / def 1.461 | Al-Nassr attack 1.069 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.099 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Al Baten xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Al-Nassr xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Baten vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al Baten vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 16:40 on Thursday 15 September 2022 at Al-Batin FC Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Baten vs Al-Nassr?
Al Baten 0 - 4 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al Baten vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at Al-Batin FC Stadium.
What competition is Al Baten vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al Baten vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Baten vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al Baten a 24% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 51% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Baten vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al Baten and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al Baten vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Baten and Al-Nassr?
Record (2 meetings): Al Baten 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Nassr 2W.
What form are Al Baten and Al-Nassr in?
Al Baten (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Al-Nassr (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al Baten's attack rating (0.97) and Al-Nassr's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Nassr's attack versus Al Baten's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.6%), 1-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
24%
4.15
25%
4.08
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Al Baten xG
Total xG
2.69
1.65
Al-Nassr xG
4.15
24%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
19%
5.19
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
5%
21.51
18%
5.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 11.2 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Baten vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Al Baten and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Al Baten and 1.65 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Baten vs Al-Nassr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Baten come into this having played 33 games, going 8W 9D 16L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Al Baten, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Nassr sit at 2.03 PPG from 33 outings (21W 4D 8L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Nassr, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Nassr carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.03 PPG clear of Al Baten — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al Baten's home form reads 6W 5D 5L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Al Baten are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al-Nassr have taken 1.81 points per game from 16 outings (9W 2D 5L).
The Goals Picture
Al Baten are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 1.85 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Baten
Early Season
Al-Nassr
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Baten and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al Baten have gone 8W 9D 16L in their last 33 games (1.00 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 21W 4D 8L in their last 33 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Baten at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Baten at home: 1.44 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 1.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Baten and Al-Nassr runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Nassr have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Sep 2022, when Al-Nassr won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Baten's record when hosting Al-Nassr specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Al Baten
0
Draws
4
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Baten and Al-Nassr?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Baten have won 0, Al-Nassr have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Baten and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2023, when Al-Nassr 3-1 Al Baten.
Who has won more matches between Al Baten and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Baten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Baten 44%, Al-Nassr 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al Baten) and 56% (Al-Nassr).
On the defensive side: Al Baten keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Al-Nassr in 31%; Al Baten have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Baten home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Baten play Al-Nassr?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Al Baten's recent matches and 50% of Al-Nassr's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Baten vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al Baten's recent games and 56% of Al-Nassr's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Baten and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al Baten have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Nassr run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Al Baten.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al Baten 0-4 at Al-Batin FC Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Baten 1.05 xG and Al-Nassr 1.65 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Al Baten fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Al-Nassr outscored their 1.65 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Baten attack 0.97 / defence 1.46 against Al-Nassr attack 1.07 / defence 0.98, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al Baten 24% | Draw 25% | Al-Nassr 51%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Baten 48%, Al-Nassr 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Baten's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 52% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Baten (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.