Al Baten 3-4 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Baten vs Al-Nassr encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 21 as Al Baten welcome Al-Nassr to Al-Batin FC Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 17 February 2022 at 11:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Baten stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Baten, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Baten's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Al-Batin FC Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Al-Nassr — All Games: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Nassr are 1.40 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al Baten, 1 for Al-Nassr and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with Al-Nassr winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Al Baten in-play tendencies (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Al-Nassr in-play tendencies (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Baten 45% versus Al-Nassr 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Baten 40% | Al-Nassr 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Baten 0.92 xG and Al-Nassr 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Baten attack 0.844 / defence 1.094 | Al-Nassr attack 0.849 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.103 / away 1.186. Data: 20 Al Baten games / 20 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Baten 29% | Draw 32% | Al-Nassr 39%. Fair-value odds: Al Baten 3.45 | Draw 3.12 | Al-Nassr 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Nassr as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.02 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Baten 40% | Al-Nassr 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Baten vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Al-Batin FC Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 17 Feb 2022, 11:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Baten 29% | Draw 32% | Al-Nassr 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Al Baten 0.92 / Al-Nassr 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Al Baten attack 0.844 / def 1.094 | Al-Nassr attack 0.849 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.103 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Al Baten xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Al-Nassr xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Baten vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al Baten vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 11:45 on Thursday 17 February 2022 at Al-Batin FC Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Baten vs Al-Nassr?
Al Baten 3 - 4 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al Baten vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at Al-Batin FC Stadium.
What competition is Al Baten vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al Baten vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Baten vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al Baten a 29% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 39% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Baten vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Al Baten and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al Baten vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Baten and Al-Nassr?
Record (1 meetings): Al Baten 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Nassr 1W.
What form are Al Baten and Al-Nassr in?
Al Baten (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Al-Nassr (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al Baten's attack rating (0.84) and Al-Nassr's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Nassr's attack versus Al Baten's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 0-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
29%
3.43
32%
3.12
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Al Baten xG
Total xG
2.02
1.10
Al-Nassr xG
3.43
29%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
10%
10.34
15%
6.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 14.6 | 8.1 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Baten vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Al Baten and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Al Baten and 1.10 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Baten vs Al-Nassr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Baten come into this having played 20 games, going 4W 7D 9L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-L. The sample for Al Baten is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Nassr sit at 1.90 PPG from 20 outings (12W 2D 6L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Nassr carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.95 PPG clear of Al Baten — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al Baten's home form reads 3W 4D 3L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Nassr have taken 1.90 points per game from 10 outings (6W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Baten are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 1.75 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Last 20 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Baten
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Baten and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al Baten have gone 4W 7D 9L in their last 20 games (0.95 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 12W 2D 6L in their last 20 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Baten at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Baten at home: 1.30 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 1.90 PPG.
Have Al Baten or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Baten have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Baten and Al-Nassr runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Nassr have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Sep 2022, when Al-Nassr won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Baten's record when hosting Al-Nassr specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Al Baten
0
Draws
4
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Baten and Al-Nassr?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Baten have won 0, Al-Nassr have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Baten and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2023, when Al-Nassr 3-1 Al Baten.
Who has won more matches between Al Baten and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Baten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Baten 40%, Al-Nassr 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Al Baten) and 40% (Al-Nassr).
On the defensive side: Al Baten keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Al-Nassr in 40%; Al Baten have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Baten home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Baten play Al-Nassr?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Al Baten's recent matches and 40% of Al-Nassr's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Baten vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Al Baten's recent games and 40% of Al-Nassr's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Baten and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al Baten have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Nassr edge out Al Baten 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al Baten 3-4 at Al-Batin FC Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Baten 0.92 xG and Al-Nassr 1.10 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Al Baten beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Nassr outscored their 1.10 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Baten attack 0.84 / defence 1.09 against Al-Nassr attack 0.85 / defence 0.99, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Baten 29% | Draw 32% | Al-Nassr 39%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Baten 40%, Al-Nassr 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Baten's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 0.95. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Baten (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.