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Dominant Al-Ahli Jeddah run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Damac.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Damac 3-0 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 27, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.49 xG and Damac 0.81 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Damac landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.43 / defence 0.76 against Damac attack 0.74 / defence 1.14, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 74% | Draw 16% | Damac 10%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 74%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 50%, Damac 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.

Damac's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 0.95. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Damac (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights