Al-Ahli Jeddah 4-2 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Damac encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 4 as Al-Ahli Jeddah welcome Damac to King Abdullah Sports City. Kick-off is set for Friday 20 September 2024 at 16:55 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Ahli Jeddah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at King Abdullah Sports City this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sports City.
Across all Pro League games this season, Damac have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Damac have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Damac away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Al-Ahli Jeddah carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 0 for Damac and 3 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2024, ended 4–1 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Damac in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 51% versus Damac 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 54% | Damac 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.72 xG and Damac 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.094 / defence 0.793 | Damac attack 1.028 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.266. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating of 0.793 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 37 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 53% | Draw 24% | Damac 23%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Damac 4.35. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ahli Jeddah 40% | Damac 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Friday 20 Sep 2024, 16:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 53% | Draw 24% | Damac 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.72 / Damac 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.094 / def 0.793 | Damac attack 1.028 / def 1.144 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.266 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Damac xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Damac kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Damac kicked off at 16:55 on Friday 20 September 2024 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Damac?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 4 - 2 Damac.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Damac part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Damac is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 53% chance of winning, Damac a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Damac?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 1W | Draws 3 | Damac 0W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Damac in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Damac (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack rating (1.09) and Damac's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Damac's attack versus Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
53%
1.87
24%
4.19
23%
4.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
2.75
1.03
Damac xG
1.87
53%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
4.41
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
18%
5.57
Win to Nil
19%
5.25
4%
24.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.3 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1.03 for Damac, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ahli Jeddah come into this having played 37 games, going 20W 9D 8L for 1.86 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Damac sit at 1.19 PPG from 37 outings (11W 11D 15L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Damac, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ahli Jeddah carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Damac — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home form reads 12W 4D 2L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Damac have taken 0.94 points per game from 18 outings (4W 5D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.32 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Early Season
Damac
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Damac in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 20W 9D 8L in their last 37 games (1.86 PPG), while Damac have gone 11W 11D 15L in their last 37 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Damac away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 2.22 PPG; Damac away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Damac been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Damac in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Ahli Jeddah have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 May 2024, when Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's record when hosting Damac specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Al-Ahli Jeddah
3
Draws
0
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Damac?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 5, Damac have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-0 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Damac?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Damac see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ahli Jeddah 39%, Damac 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Al-Ahli Jeddah) and 50% (Damac).
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Damac in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Damac?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent matches and 61% of Damac's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent games and 50% of Damac's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Damac tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Damac in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ahli Jeddah cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Damac.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Damac 4-2 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.72 xG and Damac 1.03 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Damac outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.09 / defence 0.79 against Damac attack 1.03 / defence 1.14, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 53% | Draw 24% | Damac 23%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 54%, Damac 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Damac's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.19. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.72 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Damac (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.