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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model favours Al-Ahli Jeddah (74%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ahli Jeddah face Damac.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 27 as Al-Ahli Jeddah welcome Damac to King Abdullah Sports City. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 April 2026 at 17:15 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Ahli Jeddah's form when playing at home: 9W 1D 0L across 10 games at King Abdullah Sports City this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all Pro League games this season, Damac have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Damac away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Al-Ahli Jeddah carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.40 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.50 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Ahli Jeddah register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Damac in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Al-Ahli Jeddah: 4 wins from 7 previous clashes against 0 for Damac, with 3 draws across those contests.

The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2026, ended 1–0 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Ahli Jeddah and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Profile

Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.

Damac in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 48% versus Damac 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% | Damac 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.49 xG and Damac 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.433 / defence 0.758 | Damac attack 0.745 / defence 1.138. League average goals — home 1.528 / away 1.440. Al-Ahli Jeddah carry an above-average attack strength of 1.433 — their λ of 2.49 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating of 0.758 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 60 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 74% | Draw 16% | Damac 10%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.35 | Draw 6.25 | Damac 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (74%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the pick at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.30 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ahli Jeddah 70% | Damac 60% BTTS from recent games.

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