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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Shabab share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Shabab finished level at 1-1 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 5, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.57 xG and Al Shabab 1.34 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.20 / defence 0.98 against Al Shabab attack 0.95 / defence 0.86, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 43% | Draw 25% | Al Shabab 33%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 50%, Al Shabab 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Al Shabab's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.97 PPG, Al Shabab 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights